Calibration exercise 01 – Australian Referendum

Biases: I have a personal preference for a ‘YES’ outcome. I am probably overoptimistic about the chances of success.

)Edit – I had previously placed a ‘YES’ position in March this year, which I had forgotten about when I wrote the below )

Current state of the market seemed low to me at a naive 8% and so I bought it to 16%.


Options now are to study positions – I guess is probably a little under bought still but I haven’t studied interstate polling in months and have voided the discussion up until recently. Would be interested to know what that blip was in April as well.

Next steps are to consider

(a) other positions

(b) comments

(c) external polling

If there are limit orders then I may not push it back up to 16%, but if that’s the case then that’s either someone else being overconfident or me being way off base rates.

An image of He-Man skedaddling





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